By Sylvain Charlebois — January 22, 2026

A web of regulations, compliance costs, carbon pricing and interprovincial trade barriers is pushing food prices higher

Food prices in Canada are rising faster than in any other G7 country, and the reason is no longer a mystery: domestic policy failure is driving food inflation, not global shocks or corporate greed.

In December alone, food prices rose 6.2 per cent year-over-year, with grocery costs up five per cent and restaurant prices jumping 8.5 per cent.

That alone would be troubling. What makes it more alarming is that inflation came in well above expectations, pushing Canada to its highest food inflation rate since August 2023.

According to the latest internationally comparable data, Canada now sits at the top of the G7 for food inflation. The numbers speak for themselves: Canada at 6.2 per cent, Japan close behind at 6.1 per cent, followed by the U.K. at 4.2 per cent and the U.S. at just 3.1 per cent. Italy, France and Germany are all hovering below three per cent. This should stop policymakers in Canada in their tracks.

It makes little sense that food inflation in Canada is roughly double that of the United States, especially given that Washington has embraced tariffs and trade confrontation far more aggressively than Ottawa. If tariffs were the main driver, the U.S. should be leading this unfortunate ranking. It isn’t.

Part of December’s spike can be explained by the GST holiday, which applied for 17 days of the month. Temporary tax relief often feels good in the moment, but it comes with a cost: pricing volatility. When taxes are suspended and then reintroduced, price signals become distorted. Retailers and suppliers adjust, sometimes conservatively, sometimes opportunistically. Only now can we properly measure those effects, and the results are not encouraging.

At the grocery level, December’s inflation was driven primarily by meat, fish, vegetables and pantry staples such as coffee. This occurred during the second month of the so-called “blackout period”, an industry practice in which large retailers ask suppliers to refrain from raising prices late in the year, typically during peak holiday demand.

That prices rose anyway tells us something important: cost pressures are real, persistent and increasingly difficult to contain.

And the outlook is worse. January 2026 food inflation is very likely to come in even higher. That should deeply concern anyone who cares about household affordability, food security or economic competitiveness.

Yes, some of Canada’s food inflation still reflects global factors, including climate volatility, energy costs and supply disruptions. But most of it is now policy-induced.

Regulatory drag, interprovincial trade barriers, poor logistics, rising compliance costs, carbon pricing embedded throughout the supply chain and a sluggish macroeconomic environment all compound one another. These are not temporary shocks. They are structural weaknesses. This is occurring even as Canada’s overall inflation rate has eased from the post-pandemic highs seen in 2022 and 2023, making food an outlier among major consumer categories.

The first step in solving a problem is acknowledging that it exists.

This is not about blaming one grocer or one executive. If food inflation were driven by profiteering, we would see it clearly in financial statements, in sustained increases in gross margins. Bay Street analysts and accountants would have flagged it long ago. They haven’t, because the data don’t support that narrative.

That said, grocers are not entirely blameless. The fact that prices climbed during a blackout period raises legitimate questions about transparency, bargaining dynamics and how costs are passed through the system. Retailers are not “as white as snow” here, and scrutiny is warranted. But scapegoating them distracts from the real issue.

Canada has a policy-driven food inflation problem, and until we are willing to say that out loud, nothing meaningful will change. Temporary tax holidays, populist rhetoric and finger-pointing may win headlines, but they will not bring prices down.

Food inflation is no longer a passing storm. It is a warning signal, and ignoring it carries consequences for household budgets, food security and Canada’s long-term economic competitiveness.

Dr. Sylvain Charlebois is a Canadian professor and researcher in food distribution and policy. He is senior director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University and co-host of The Food Professor Podcast. He is frequently cited in the media for his insights on food prices, agricultural trends, and the global food supply chain. 

The views, opinions, and positions expressed by our columnists and contributors are solely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of our publication.

By Martha Beach-Yeo

For Canadian chefs and restaurant operators, seafood can be both a menu highlight and an operational balancing act. Seafood products and dishes are often accompanied by high guest expectations, strong health and sustainability perceptions, and increasingly unpredictable pricing and availability. Behind every fillet, shell, or sashimi cut is a complex seafood industry that includes wild fisheries, aquaculture, global trade, and regulatory oversight. Understanding how Canada’s seafood industry functions can help chefs and operators make more informed decisions around pricing, sourcing, and menu choices in a category where margins and availability are constantly in motion.

Canada’s seafood industry is one of the country’s most economically significant food sectors, with direct implications for restaurant sourcing and pricing. According to Fisheries and Oceans Canada, commercial wild fisheries landed approximately 687,000 tonnes of fish and shellfish in 2022, with a total  value of about $4.7 billion. Shellfish accounted for the majority of that value, roughly $4.1 billion, driven largely by lobster, crab, and shrimp. At the same time, Canada’s aquaculture sector produced an additional 166,000 tonnes of seafood, valued at approximately $1.34 billion, with farmed salmon representing the majority of production and offering a more consistent year-round supply for foodservice. Canada is also a major seafood exporter, shipping products to more than 118 countries and generating roughly $7.6 billion in export value in 2023, while importing over $5.5 billion in seafood annually to meet domestic demand. This dual role as both exporter and importer means that global markets, currency shifts, and international demand play a direct role in the cost and availability of seafood on Canadian restaurant menus.

For restaurants, the seafood category can be volatile, with wild-caught species like high-value shellfish more exposed to seasonality, weather events, regulatory limits, and global export demand, which can create sharp pricing swings and availability gaps. Aquaculture has become an option offering more stability for foodservice establishments. Farmed fish, led by salmon, offers more consistent sizing, supply continuity, and cost forecasting, making it a staple many restaurants have come to rely on. According to Fisheries and Oceans Canada, aquaculture now represents a significant share of Canada’s total seafood production by value, showing its growing role in feeding domestic markets. As labour pressures, food costs, and sustainability expectations continue to shape restaurant operations, farmed seafood is becoming more than just an alternative to wild fish, but a strategic menu tool as well, allowing chefs to balance premium offerings with operational reliability while still meeting guest expectations around taste and quality, traceability, and responsible sourcing.

Michelle Naumann with Export Packers says operators are increasingly looking for seafood that balances “cost, sustainability and menu flexibility”, and notes that Blue Cod has been one option gaining popularity with chefs and operators. Naumann describes Blue Cod as “an affordable fish with a mild flavour, firm but delicate flesh and moist texture,” and says it is “a great value alternative to Haddock or Cod.”

Rob Graham with Oceanfood Sales says he is seeing restaurant seafood choices shifting as demographics and costs reshape what Canadians order and what operators can afford. Even so, he says the seafood category’s “usual suspects” are still leading the pack. “Tuna was always number one, and salmon and prawns are 2 and 3… They’re always the most popular things.” But the cost reality is hard to ignore. “Everything just keeps going up and up in price,” Graham says, adding that some items have simply become unattainable for many diners.  “Crab is $100 a pound- it’s out of reach for many” he says.

For operators looking for stability, Graham points to aquaculture as the practical direction the market is heading. “Aquaculture is the way,” he says, “Everything wild just keeps going up in price.” Graham says the wild fish supply is tightening and pricing pressure is steady. “I’ve been buying salmon for over 30 years, and there’s less wild salmon every year, and it keeps going up and up in price.” He pushes back on the idea that seafood “should” be wild when most other food categories aren’t. “Your vegetables, your meat, your chicken,  everything’s farmed, why not your seafood?” For salmon specifically, he emphasizes consistency and performance in the kitchen. “Farmed salmon cooks really well,” Graham says.

Neumann notes that restaurants looking to control costs in their seafood offerings should look to some of the under-utilized species available ,and points to Hoki as an example “Hoki is a less familiar fish among Canadian consumers and chefs,” she says, adding that “its branding and consumer recognition is underdeveloped in comparison to the iconic Cod or traditional Haddock varieties, but Hoki is MSC certified.” She describes it as “a mild, clean tasting fish with a delicate texture,” noting that it is “often compared to Haddock and Cod.” Neumann also highlights its versatility, saying “Hoki is a versatile fish that can be baked, fried, steamed or grilled,” and notes that it “comes in a variety of formats such as loins, fillets and portions, used in foodservice.” Naumann adds that limited-time offers can help introduce lesser-known species. “LTOs remain a powerful tool for operators to create excitement around new menu items,” she says, suggesting “there is an opportunity to showcase under-utilized options such as a Hoki for added value and differentiation.”

When it comes to what chefs can look to next when planning seafood menus, Graham also suggests there are opportunities in less-hyped species, especially where flavour and margin align.“Out here on the West Coast, there’s a ton of rockfish fillets around, and they’re cheap and delicious, but people aren’t really getting into them yet,” Graham says. “If I had a restaurant that did fish tacos or curried fish or anything, I’d be using rockfish over basa for sure… at least something wild that has flavour at a better price point.” He also points to black cod, particularly smaller sizes. “Black cod is another wild option that is less used, but there’s a lot of black cod around- small black cod, not the big stuff,” he says

Naumann says sustainability is another topic that continues to play a major role in seafood programs.“Diners want to know what they’re eating is ethically and environmentally sound,” she says, adding that “restaurants are focused on sourcing responsibly sourced seafood.” She notes that sustainability is a core consideration for Export Packers. “Our significant presence in the seafood market means that seafood sustainability is an important consideration for our business.” This means the company looks for alignment with its suppliers - “We look to partner with suppliers who share our same view and catch or farm seafood in a sustainable and responsible manner,” says Neumann. She highlights the importance of third-party certifications when it comes to sustainability, nothing that the company offers a wide variety of products that have been certified by third-party organizations and is working on advancing sustainable and responsible seafood practices, including “MSC certified wild-caught seafood products and BAP and ASC certified farmed seafood products.”

As Canada’s seafood industry continues to evolve, chefs and restaurant operators are navigating a category shaped by rising costs, limited supplies, and complex environment challenges. Wild fisheries remain a vital part of the country’s seafood supply while aquaculture has become an increasingly important source of supply stability and menu consistency for foodservice. In a category where prices and availability can shift quickly, informed sourcing and thoughtful menu design remain key tools for keeping seafood both profitable and delicious and keep guest coming back for more.

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• New Brunswick shoppers face the worst food inflation in Canada, with prices up 3.7% over the past year.
• Beef prices have surged 12.7% nationwide, while coffee and tea have climbed 12.8%.
• Christmas food shopping is also expected to strain budgets this year, as rising costs for beef, dairy, and produce make hosting holiday dinners significantly more expensive than in 2024.

Grocery prices are up across Canada and a new study shows which provinces are feeling it the most at the checkout, just as Canadians begin budgeting for their Christmas dinners and holiday gatherings.

The analysis from money experts analyzed data from Statistics Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports for May 2025. The analysis compared year-over-year price changes (May 2024 to May 2025) for food products across all Canadian provinces.

Food prices across Canada went up 3.4% between May 2024 and May 2025, data from the Consumer Price Index reveals, meaning Canadian families will need to dig deeper not only for their weekly grocery shop but also for their Christmas food shopping this year.

Top five provinces with greatest increase in food prices:

"Many Canadian families already struggle to make ends meet, and these food price hikes make things worse," says Jack Prenter, CEO of Dollarwise. "What's particularly troubling is beef, with some provinces now paying nearly a quarter more than they did last year."

The figures show which items hurt shoppers most. Fresh or frozen beef led nationwide increases at 12.7% (+$2.12kg ground beef) in 12 months. Oranges cost 15.8% (+$0.88) more across Canada.

"Beef prices have risen so dramatically it's truly alarming," says Prenter. "Depending on which province you live in, you're paying between 6% and 24% more for this protein source than you did a year ago."

Looking at April to May 2025 shows more price shocks. Potato prices rose 9.6% (+$0.2kg) in just four weeks. The one bright spot was for fruit and veg, tomato prices dropped 9.7% (-$0.17kg) and cucumber prices fell 10.1% (-$0.05) during this period.

Top five provinces with lowest increase in food prices:

Monthly data shows wild price fluctuations for certain foods. Grape prices jumped 21.4% (+$2.19) from April to May 2025. Berry prices went in the opposite direction, falling 8.6% in the same timeframe.

The worst category increases hit coffee drinkers, with roasted or ground coffee up 20% (+$0.72) nationwide. Beef eaters felt similar pain, especially those buying ground beef, which rose 16.3% across Canada.

"Not all food categories face the same increases," Prenter adds. "Families should look at shifting their shopping habits toward items with more stable prices to better manage their food budgets."

TORONTO, Aug. 7, 2025 – Despite ongoing economic uncertainty, Canada’s commercial foodservice industry has demonstrated remarkable resilience and growth in the first half of 2025. According to , traffic in the sector increased by 3.2%, while spending rose by an impressive 5.7%. These gains extend a consistent upward trend that began in mid-2021, underscoring the sector’s strength and adaptability.  

Quick-service restaurants (QSR) led the way in traffic growth, logging a 4.3% increase during the most recent quarter. Retail foodservice also showed exceptional performance, matching QSR quarterly traffic growth of 4.3% and marking its best growth in years. However, full-service restaurants experienced a modest 0.7% decline in traffic, as consumers turned to more budget-conscious options like QSR and retail foodservice to maximize their spending power.  

Independent and small-chain restaurants also outpaced large-chain competitors in traffic growth, reflecting a shift toward localized dining experiences and a growing appetite for unique, bold flavors and innovative menus that celebrate regional and cultural diversity. The industry’s ability to innovate and meet consumer needs — whether through digital ordering, value-driven promotions, convenient delivery options or menu innovation — has driven this sustained success.

Several factors have contributed to the robust performance of the commercial foodservice industry in Canada. Over the past four years, the country’s growing population has steadily bolstered demand. More recently, reduced international travel has redirected consumer dollars toward local experiences instead of costly vacations abroad. Canadians are opting for domestic travel and small indulgences, including restaurant visits.

Additionally, deal rates climbed for the sixth consecutive quarter, helping attract value-seeking consumers. Lunch has emerged as the fastest-growing daypart, supported by the steady return-to-office trend, while digital ordering options — via mobile apps, websites and text — continued their double-digit growth in each of the past three quarters. Delivery, in particular, surged by 13% in the last quarter. Independent and small-chain restaurants also outpaced large-chain competitors in traffic growth, reflecting a shift toward localized dining experiences.  

“Canada’s commercial foodservice sector has shown extraordinary resilience and adaptability, with robust growth across key segments like QSR and retail foodservice,” said Vince Sgabellone, foodservice industry analyst at Circana. “The industry’s ability to innovate and meet consumer needs — whether through digital ordering, value-driven promotions or convenient delivery options — has driven this sustained success."  

The strong performance in H1 2025 reflects Canadians’ evolving dining habits and reallocation of discretionary spending, mirroring broader lifestyle adjustments. Looking ahead, the foodservice industry’s continued focus on affordability, digital solutions and consumer convenience positions it for sustained growth in the coming quarters.